| The hour of diplomacy or modus vivendi |
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| Written by Ñèìåîí Âàñèëåâ | |
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Some observers compared the first diplomatic visit of Condoleezza Rice with the diplomacy of the former secretary of state Henry Kissinger 33 years ago, when the United States were preparing to play “the Chinese card”. In this comparison between the “Chinese time” of Nixon and Kissinger and the “European time” of Bush and Rice there is a large doze of irony concerning “the cunning of history”. It turned out that “the European card” of Bush has… Chinese dimensions. The United States do not accept the European plans for lifting the arms embargo against China, imposed after the events in Tiananmen Square in 1989. The main reason, according to Washington, is that the military balance in East Asia will be upset. Particularly insistent on lifting the embargo is France, which claims that in five years China will have modern weapons with or without the help of the West. Other analysts of the European tour of Condoleezza Rice made a better analogy with the 1950s, the time of Harry Truman and state secretary John Dalles. Then the United States and Western Europe united after the end of World War II owing to the common threat and the Cold War. The comparison is good because then as now “America needs a strong Europe” for “the common opportunity to spread freedom and democracy in the world”. Upon her nomination for secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice stated “the hour of diplomacy has struck”, which was a clear sign of the new trend in international politics. Rice’s tour of “the old part of Europe”, from London through Rome, Paris, Berlin and Brussels, showed it was also time to answer the question whether America and Europe can agree. This answer depends on how far the diplomacy on both sides of the Ocean will combine interests so as to make the Transatlantic relations forget the Iraqi variance, close the ranks for the Iranian nuclear challenge, think rationally of the relations with large partners such as Russia and the differences in the policy to China. China will surely be a great challenge for both the American and the European policy, because they see in it an emerging world power. A little before the European visit of the US President George Bush, the EU High Commissar for general foreign policy and security policy Xavier Solana appealed to the Europeans and Americans for better cooperation. Solana expressed confidence that the disagreement on China and Iran can be smoothed. Europe and the US have overcome the war in Iraq and now they have to look to the future, Solana said and this can be interpreted as a clear signal. Apart from Iraq, however, on the agenda remain hard problems such as the International Criminal Court, the Kyoto Protocol, the attitude to the UNO. The Kyoto Protocol on counteraction of the global warming and reduction of the greenhouse effect, for example, entered into force on February 16 with the signatures of 141 countries, among which the USA is not. This will certainly not be conducive to closing the “ozone hole” in Transatlantic relations. “The United States will never accept the newly founded International Criminal Court and the European Union has to comply with this,” EU Foreign Minister Xavier Solana says. He explains this with the fact that in the United States people cannot accept their compatriots to be tried at a non-American court. Evidently, European foreign policy has judged that no US president will change the present position of the United States and, according to Solana, maybe it is better not to change this position but to find some modus vivendi. In diplomacy the Latin term modus vivendi means an international entente, concluded in existing conditions which create normal conditions only temporarily but do not allow for a permanent settlement of the dispute by an agreement. “America is ready to work with Europe on the general agenda and Europe should be ready to work with America,” was the diplomatic dialectics of Rice, put forth at the elite Institute of Political Studies in Paris, known as the forge for French diplomats. No1 in this agenda is the spreading of democracy, which Condoleezza Rice defines as a prime foreign political principle of the 21st century. Doubtlessly, Europe accepts this principle and the aim of building up a democratic, free and peaceful world. The differences are on the ways to achieve this. France, the biggest opponent to the war in Iraq, also gave encouraging signals for improvement of relations. The French Defense Minister Alliot-Marie claims that even on the question of Iraq the relations are better. The hour of diplomacy will surely involve NATO, too. The North Atlantic Treaty is the major motive power of Transatlantic dialogue between the United States and the European allies. However, the German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder doubts this. His speech at the International Conference on Security in Munich, read by the German Defense Minister Peter Struck because Schroeder was sick, created considerable tension. The German Chancellor not only demanded the formation of a committee of high-ranking experts to consider the ways to invigorate the transatlantic relations, but also expressed doubts that NATO is still the major forum where the transatlantic partners discuss and coordinate their strategies. In fact, the German proposal was the United States and the European Union to introduce a direct way of coordinating their actions. This for sure means their relations are entering a new stage. The question is when the hour of this diplomacy, which can avert the state of modus vivendi, will strike. |
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The new Secretary of State of the US Condoleezza Rice made her first diplomatic tour of Europe and opened the door for a new edition of the Transatlantic relations. It fell on Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State to start the intellectual healing of the nervous system of the Transatlantic relations broken down on account of Iraq. Rice’s European talks, qualified as “the best discussion after the fall of Saddam Hussein”, were the first real attempt to re-define the relations of Washington with the European allies after the disruption over the war in Iraq and after the re-election of George Bush as President of the United States. The February mission of Rice in Europe was also a kind of beginning of the most serious diplomatic challenge – the turning of the Iraqi syndrome into a Transatlantic compromise. Because of this syndrome in April 2003 Condoleezza Rice created the shortest “geopolitical sentence”: Punish France, ignore Germany and forgive Russia. Almost two years later, for Condoleezza Rice “the dissension bred by the war in Iraq has been overcome and the United States and the European Union must look ahead to avert any possible world crises”.